The special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s vacated congressional seat already presented candidates with an extra-special set of challenges. Now, it looks likely that Mother Nature is throwing a major snowstorm into the mix.
The storm comes during one of the last weekends candidates have to make their case to voters in NJ’s 11th Congressional District. There are a total of 11 Democratic candidates vying for their party's nod in the Feb. 5 primary, and several tell Gothamist they’ve had to alter weekend campaign plans to deal with the potential storm.
The latest forecasts as of Friday show much of New Jersey could get a foot or more of snow on Sunday into Monday. For the candidates, that means phone banking and text messages, instead of door-knocking and canvassing across the parts of Morris, Essex and Passaic counties that will vote in this election.
Despite the odd timing of the 11th District’s special election — a Thursday primary in February — people around the nation are watching how voters choose. Matt Hale, associate professor of political science at Seton Hall University, said the weather — and potential low turnout due to the odd timing of this election — could be an advantage for any one of these candidates who has developed a strong coalition of support during this truncated two-month primary.
“If you have the backbone of support and it's a low turnout and you have weather issues, all of those types of things could be a big factor,” he said.
Normally an off-schedule primary in the middle of winter wouldn’t attract much attention, but the race is being closely watched as potential bellwether for the high-stakes midterms later this year, when Congress could change hands. With a Republican unlikely to prevail in the April 16 general election, the primary stands to be the decisive contest.
“It's going to stay a Democratic seat, but what kind of Democrat is it going to be?” Hale said. “Is it going to be a centrist and a moderate, or is it going to be someone from the far left?”
Political observers say a top tier of candidates has been emerging from the crowded Democratic field, including Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, former Rep. Tom Malinowski and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way. Alongside those three, Analilia Mejia, a former political director for Bernie Sanders and longtime New Jersey progressive activist, has generated buzz as the candidate consolidating left-wing support.
Camille Rivera, senior adviser to the Mejia campaign, said the campaign would be moving its planned in-person events online, but is still planning to send volunteers out as “snow patrols.”
“Talking to voters and talking to folks that need their driveways shoveled,” she said. “We are blessed to have a strong volunteer operation that could provide that kind of mutual aid to people who need it.”
Kaylie Haberstroh, spokesperson for the Malinowski campaign, said the campaign is sending out extra canvassers during the week to get ahead of the storm, while pivoting to phone-banking this weekend. She said she’s expecting Sunday’s events would need to be moved around.
Malinowski said door-knocking would resume completely once it was safe.
“When our volunteers go out knocking on doors in the snow, they get extra credit from the voters. So we'll take advantage of that once it's safe and it's no longer a blizzard, but still a winter wonderland in New Jersey,” he said.
Toral Patel, a spokesperson for Gill’s campaign, said they would also focus on phone calls this weekend and had no events planned for Sunday. She said they’ve also been encouraging people to take advantage of vote-by-mail and early voting, which starts on Thursday, Jan. 29.
“We just want to be prepared for that and make sure that we get all voters out before election day,” she told Gothamist.
Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, another candidate whom experts see as a potential dark horse given he’s a known quantity in that county, echoed the point about early voting’s importance in this primary.
“ Somewhere in there there's going to be a day that works for voters when the weather is good,” he said.
More than 1.3 million early in-person votes were cast before Election Day in the 2025 New Jersey governor's race, which saw surging voter turnout. Over 750,000 ballots were submitted via mail.
Way’s campaign said she has plans to visit three church services on Sunday in East Orange but the weather would determine how many the campaign gets to.
“This weekend, we’re going to safely continue our work to reach voters across the 11th District to put money back in New Jerseyans’ wallets, defend our health care, and stand up to Donald Trump’s assault on our fundamental rights — no matter the weather,” Way said.
One Democratic candidate in the race told Gothamist he has no plans to cancel outdoor campaigning this weekend: “If we let the snow and we let the cold keep us down, then how can we say that we are equipped to go battle Donald Trump?” said Justin Strickland, an Army veteran and city councilmember from Chatham.
Strickland, whose campaign team of 40 unsalaried volunteers has adopted the Star Wars-inspired moniker the Rebel Alliance, plans to knock doors on Sunday if members can get out there.
“The Rebel Alliance was a bunch of regular people coming together and fighting for the galaxy," he said. "And they made their base on Planet Hoth for a little while — and it's cold there!”
