Why an avocado can cost 25 cents or $3 — and what it says about grocery shopping in NYC

The price of avocados could be about to change… again.

Produce wholesalers like Dan Spoerel are preparing for the annual shift from the California growing season, which ends this fall, to getting avocados primarily from Mexico, where the avocados aren't just creamier, they’re also more expensive.

But even if prices spike, he knows New Yorkers will pay.

“You can't substitute anything for it,” said Spoerel, who operates out of the bustling Hunts Point Produce Market in the Bronx. “If there's no iceberg lettuce, what do you buy? Green leaf, romaine, spring mix. If there's no broccoli, you buy cauliflower. But an avocado is an avocado.”

Across the country, avocado consumption has tripled in the last two decades according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In the city, it’s become a necessary luxury: We can add avocado to practically anything, our salads or burrito bowls — for a fee. While we could live without it, we just don’t want to.

But the superfood that’s packed with more potassium than a banana has a downside: its price across the city is notoriously volatile. In the same week, an avocado can sell at Union Market on Seventh Avenue in Park Slope for $2.69 while across town at the Asian Jmart in Flushing, a towering pile offers four for $1 — a quarter a pop. And every quarter counts in a moment when New Yorkers are feeling rising grocery costs. In 2023, an average household in the New York City metropolitan area spent $4,000 more on food a year than 10 years ago, the state comptroller’s office found.

Over the last few months, Gothamist reporters regularly visited four grocery stores in each borough to track prices on household staples and investigate what is driving price increases and differences across the city. You can find our methodology here.

We found beef prices across the city varied by as much as $7 a pound. Meanwhile, a half-gallon of whole milk was the most consistently priced item; its price remained stable at most stores every month. The avocado, on the other hand, was the most unpredictable. In addition to the wild price variations between stores, between July and September, prices for the fruit dropped by more than half at some stores and more than doubled at others.

The avocado’s fickleness offers a window into the overlapping factors — from grower to grocer — that determine what you pay at checkout: whether there’s a drought, a run on guac for the Super Bowl or customer complaints on Reddit.

‘Mexico doesn't care that we have a Super Bowl’

Spoerel pops out of the back of a refrigerated truck that’s keeping his avocados at a cool 40 degrees Fahrenheit on a rainy September morning at Hunts Point. At the South Bronx loading docks, nearly three dozen wholesalers are selling thousands of produce items side by side, 24 hours a day, six days a week. Hunts point isn't just the largest distribution center in the city. At 1 million square feet, it's the largest in the world, supplying 60% of the produce for the five boroughs.

Spoerel paid $20 for each case of 60 bright green avocados from Mexico, about $0.33 each. He said Mexican avocados are the best in class; they outsell avocados from Peru, Colombia and Dominican Republic 10 to 1. That’s because Mexican avocados have a higher oil content, which makes them much creamier.

“That’s crazy cheap,” Spoerel said. Some days, he added, he pays $80 for the same case.

Spoerel is a buyer for Pan Hellenic Food of NY, which supplies restaurants and grocery stores in the tristate area. He buys produce from growers and distributors, which he then sells to food stores and businesses, or sometimes professional buyers who then sell to smaller stores.

Avocado prices are susceptible to the culinary domino effect; what happens in one part of the supply chain can shift prices by a whole decimal point a continent away. Hunts Point is like the stock exchange: Wholesalers need to know how to trust their gut and adapt quickly because the market can be unpredictable. In an extreme case last summer, the Mexican cartel assaulted inspectors, forcing the United States to pause imports.

“That drove the prices to $120 [a case],” said  John Thomas Bonomolo, director of Operations for A&J Produce Corp, another wholesaler at Hunts Point.

Climate is also a major factor. In the beginning of the year, a drought in Mexico caused shipments to drop 26% from the same period last year. With less supply, prices for the fruit nearly doubled, Bloomberg reported.

Spoerel says when these things happen, he adjusts on the spot and will probably sell each case for 10% profit, which is lower than the usual 15%-18%.

“ Right now there's a dead market. I can't get more than $26 for this,” he said, noting that avocados are plentiful right now, coming from both Mexico and California, and there’s no special demand for them at the end of the summer.

But once the California growing season ends, supply will be lower. And when demand soars during peak consumption periods, prices can soar, too.

“Mexico doesn't care that we have a Super Bowl, they don't give a shit. They're not picking extra because New York's having a Super Bowl,” Spoerel said.

While the Trump administration’s tariffs are a hot topic, wholesalers at Hunts Point aren’t too concerned yet since Mexican avocados are exempt for now. They’re more worried about how their persistently growing overhead costs — gas, utilities and labor — have cut into their profits in recent years, but it’s not always good business to pass those costs onto stores.

“ We can't try to make up our high costs because you gotta stay in line. You'll lose the customer if you don't,” Bonomolo said. “You won't be able to sell anything if you're outta whack.”

Eating the cost

Once the avocado arrives at the grocery store, the store owners have to use the same discretion to set their own prices for the shopper.

Young Kim, CEO of Jubilee Marketplace, is gambling that his short-term losses will turn into long-term loyalty among customers. He launched a price-drop initiative at both his stores earlier this year after hearing customers complain in the aisles about not being able to afford shopping at his store. A Reddit thread titled “Grocery Prices at Jubilee are Offensive” also led to his decision to lower prices at his stores in Greenpoint and downtown Manhattan. A third location in Williamsburg is not affiliated with his company, Kim said.

To supply the pristine produce section, Kim says he pays anywhere between $30 and $110 for a case of 40 avocados. When the prices hover around the high end of that range, he loses $1 to $2 per avocado he sells.

“When it does spike like that, we just put it at the price we bought it for,” Kim said. “So we don’t make any money, but customers still will be like, ‘Why is this so expensive?’”

Jubilee used to mark up items 60% to 80% automatically, following an unwritten rule among grocery store owners. This allowed Kim to cover overhead costs like rent, payroll and business insurance while also making a small profit. Insurance for his store in Downtown Manhattan costs nearly $500,000 a year, he said.

But now, as he looks to cut prices for customers, he takes a more granular approach. He meticulously reviews each item, compares it to neighboring competitors and decides whether to lower the prices. Sometimes he only marks up items by 30%.

“With the new initiative, we’re technically in the red right now,” Kim said.

Other small grocers said they make similar calculations when setting their prices, especially for an item whose cost is so volatile. They say it’s more art than science. They’re readjusting prices in real time, based on how well avocados are selling. Grocers are ultimately trying to make as much money before the product goes bad by trying to hit a sweet spot between what customers can afford to pay and how much profit the store is willing to lose.

Errol Schweizer, former vice president of grocery at Whole Foods, who runs the Substack The Checkout Grocery Update, said a neighborhood’s demographics also affect the pricing calculus. In lower-income neighborhoods, storeowners may need to be careful to keep prices low. But in more affluent areas, store owners don’t have to worry about keeping avocado prices low because of consistent demand from their clientele.

“It's simply the fact that they're in a higher-income district and they know the customers are willing to pay for their favorite food,” he said.

Kim said he can cut his own prices, but he doesn’t have the same power when it comes to purchasing from his suppliers. Independent grocers like him don’t have the same leverage that giant national chains enjoy because they buy at relatively smaller volumes. They also can’t get the in-person customer service from suppliers who are busy selling to customers that purchase by the truckload, not the caseload. This means there’s no opportunity to haggle.

“If you’re a national brand or regional brand, you get to meet and negotiate the price,” Kim said. “We just can’t match the buying power.”

Your go-to Whole Foods — from 125th Street in Harlem to the banks of the Gowanus Canal —– might have a reputation for being pricey, but the chain's sheer size allows it to buy at a scale that dwarfs retailers like Kim and can offer products at a cut rate. Managers at the Jmart didn’t return calls, but its multiple locations likely allow the chain to bulk buy produce on contract and price its heaping pile of avocados at 25 cents each.

”We're expected to be cheaper than the smaller grocery stores, but most of the items we get for the same prices,” Kim said. “But in the public’s eye we have a bigger blueprint so we must be cheaper.”