What NYC’s First School COVID Closure Can Tell Us About the Year To Come

New York City shuttered its first public school this week due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Public data surrounding the episode—at the Horan School in East Harlem—offers the first hints to when other schools might follow suit.

This year, the city’s Department of Education declined to set a specific threshold for school closure, opting instead to switch to remote instruction on a case-by-case basis if the health department finds evidence of “widespread transmission.”

But what exactly qualifies has not been shared by education nor health officials, leaving parents unaware of how much COVID in a school this year is considered too much. Previously, New York City schools shut their doors after racking up four school-linked cases across different classrooms within a week.

At a press conference on Tuesday, health commissioner Dr. Dave Chokshi defined "widespread transmission” in schools as “multiple sources of infection in multiple spaces or cohorts within a school.” He added that the transmission would have to be happening within the school itself, rather than in the community, to prompt a full closure.

“There’s not a perfect algorithm or chart,” New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said of the criteria for school closures. “It really depends on individual circumstances.”

For clarity, WNYC/Gothamist obtained data on the Horan School outbreak from the New York State Department of Health. It shows that 22 staff members at the school, also known as P.S. 79, had tested positive for COVID-19 by the time its doors were closed.

That would mean the school closed after about 13% of staff had a confirmed infection, given the school budgeted for about 165 employees this year.

Less mystery surrounds the origins of the outbreak at P.S. 79, a special education high school that served 277 students in the 2019-2020 school year. Schools chancellor Meisha Porter said at Tuesday’s press conference that it began with an unvaccinated adult. Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer and a Department of Education spokesperson attributed the outbreak to a staff orientation that happened before classes began on September 13th.

“What happened at P.S. 79 is unfortunate, particularly as it affects our most vulnerable: special needs public school students,” Brewer said in a statement. “Right now I’m focused on ensuring that these students are getting the best possible remote education under these difficult and challenging circumstances.”

It’s unclear where the staff orientation was held, but the building’s ventilation report shows that three employee offices lack the windows and supply fans needed to provide fresh air, a key part of preventing coronavirus transmission.

Data from the DOE’s Daily COVID Case Map speaks to the speed of the virus’s spread: By the end of the second day of school on September 14th, five of the building’s 38 classrooms had been closed due to a positive test result. Two days later on September 16th, the school was marked as having “multiple cases under investigation,” with 10 of its classrooms shuttered. The school closed completely on Saturday and is slated to reopen early next week.

That’s also when the education department will implement its new quarantine protocol, which officials told WNYC/Gothamist they hope will minimize classroom closures. The updated rules allow unvaccinated children to stay in school after someone in their class tests positive, provided that the exposed students were wearing masks and sitting at least three feet away from the infected child.