Ryan Delbango is worried about his financial future.
As prices for groceries, electricity and other basic necessities have spiked in recent years, so has his rent — with increases of roughly $100 to $200 each year for his place in Rahway, New Jersey, the software developer said.
“ I could see if this continues on for a few more years, it'll outpace any sort of gains I have with my wages,” Delbango said.
Working-class Rahway is a Democratic stronghold in what until recently had been a safe Republican congressional district for Rep. Tom Kean Jr., but political observers say that affordability concerns and President Donald Trump's declining popularity have helped transform the seat into one of New Jersey’s true swing districts. And the toss-up race between Kean and first-time Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett in this fall’s looming midterm elections will play a key role in determining which party controls Congress during the remaining two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
“Kean is in a tough spot because President Trump thinks the economy is going gangbusters and everything is doing well and that affordability isn't really that big of an issue,” said Matt Hale, political science professor at Seton Hall. “So Kean can't really say the economy's terrible and people can't afford stuff because it contradicts the president and that's dangerous for anybody.”
New Jersey’s sprawling 7th Congressional District stretches from New Jersey's eastern edge, just across the Arthur Kill from Staten Island, all the way to the Pennsylvania border.
On paper, Republicans hold about a 20,000-voter advantage. Donald Trump won this portion of NJ in 2024, but only by a slim 2-point margin. A year later, Gov. Mikie Sherrill flipped the district and carried it by a point for Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial election, emboldening those in the party who are working to win the seat in November.
Unlike Kean, Hale said Bennett has been hitting the affordability message “on all cylinders,” focusing on issues like housing, healthcare and energy costs.
“Those are things that are real dollars and cents to people,” Hale said. “You go to the diner and it's $20 for a sandwich and that just feels like it's a lot more than it used to be. It seems like all the prices are stepping up on everything and people are feeling that, and I think she's talking about that.”
Delbango, a registered Democrat, said Bennett wasn’t his “first choice” in this June’s primary, but he’ll be voting for her in November. If Democrats take back the majority in Congress this year, he said he could see them delivering an agenda to fix the affordability crisis, and that Trump might even help them do it.
“ The President might actually be more open than people think to working with Democrats if they are in the majority,” Delbango said. “He likes to get things done, put his name on it.”
Lynel Katz from Westfield, New Jersey
In Springfield, a part of the district that also leans slightly Democratic, realtor Diane Barabas has seen firsthand how the affordability crisis has priced many out of the real estate market.
“ Young couples have a hard time right now,” she said. “I was looking at some of the open houses today and in certain towns, you're paying an awful lot of money.”
She said the key to lowering prices is cutting taxes, which is one reason she supports Kean.
“He has really been an asset, helping as many people as he can,” she said.
Worries over affordability have even crept into one of the wealthiest parts of the state.
The upscale commuter suburb of Westfield recently ranked among the top 50 richest towns in the country. It’s also consistently among the top towns for voter turnout in the district.
Resident Lynel Katz, a mother of three, said she is worried about healthcare and food costs, as well as about how AI is changing careers.
“We're concerned for our kids, because they're all recent graduates,” she said. “It's concerning. They're gonna be off of our insurance at 26, and then they have to start going on their own.”
But she expressed some reservations about the direction the Democratic Party has taken over the past year. Social Democrats and other progressive candidates have recently won upset victories in parts of New Jersey and neighboring New York.
“ I usually vote blue, but I’m not going too far left,” she said. “ I have to make sure they're not so far left that they're, you know, brainwashed.”
