With mounting allegations of sexual harassment and nursing home death coverups, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing the greatest political crisis of his career. It is impossible to predict whether Cuomo is going to lose power at this point, but here are the various paths these scandals could take, and the political consequences that could follow.
Who is investigating Governor Cuomo and for what?
Governor Cuomo is facing federal and state investigations. Let’s start with the feds.
Last month, the Albany Times-Union broke news that federal prosecutors were examining how the Governor’s coronavirus taskforce dealt with deaths in nursing homes and long-term health facilities. Specifically, the Cuomo administration has come under increasing scrutiny for allegedly underreporting the true number of COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents, which they claim was due to concerns over how the Trump administration would use the data.
According to NBC news, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York began investigating the Governor’s team for possible false statements and the misuse of federal funds soon after the New York Post broke news that a Cuomo aide had privately told Democratic lawmakers about the undercount. Regardless of whether the investigation results in criminal charges, federal authorities could still publicize their findings and cause the governor significant political embarrassment.
Then, there’s the state investigation.
After initially resisting demands from lawmakers, on Monday, Cuomo opened the door to an independent investigation overseen by the New York Attorney General’s office. In a letter to Attorney General Letitia James, Cuomo’s administration granted the AG power under section 63(8) of the state’s executive law to investigate the sexual harassment allegations against him, with subpoena powers. Such an investigation could force members of his staff to answer questions under oath about what they witnessed regarding the culture of the Governor’s office and Cuoomo’s behavior, specifically.
“A 63(8) investigation ensures that there’s a truly independent, comprehensive, and public accounting of the facts,” said Amy Spitalnick, who served as a senior advisor to previous New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood. “These reports can provide recommendations and offer the legislature and other parties a potential road map for next steps.”
The culmination of this fact-finding process would result, at the very least, in a public report, which could provide ammunition for civil action by Lindsey Boylan, Charlotte Bennett, and any other individuals alleging harassment against Cuomo. It could also lead to a criminal referral to a local prosecutor’s office.
“The Governor is going to get hit with both of these scandals when these investigations are completed, and there’s some kind of finding from them, and that’s going to start happening probably in a month,” said John Kaehny, executive director of Reinvent Albany, an advocacy organization dedicated to government transparency. “That’s going to be hammer-blow after hammer-blow. He is far, far from being out of the woods.”
Could Cuomo be forced to resign?
Possibly, but it depends on how many more people come forward.
Despite the national attention these allegations have attracted, the overwhelming portion of Albany’s Democratic majority has not called for the Governor’s resignation. Most Democrats, at least for now, are sticking with the demand for an independent investigation. And experts and elected officials, interviewed by Gothamist/WNYC, speculated that Cuomo’s personality would make resignation unlikely.
“I wish that our culture supported the idea of the Governor resigning after two women made credible allegations of sexual harassment against him. Unfortunately, I don’t have faith that that is enough to motivate the Governor to resign,” said Brooklyn State Senator Julia Salazar on Sunday, the day before a third womancame forward with a new allegation of sexual misconduct against Cuomo. “My hope is that the public and my colleagues in the legislature will take these allegations seriously enough to not allow Governor Cuomo to continue to be the executive without accountability.”
On Monday night, following the third sexual harassment allegation, Representative Kathleen Rice became the first Democratic member of congress from New York to call on Cuomo to resign.
Christina Greer, a Fordham University political science professor, said that Cuomo might be able to withstand the fallout from the nursing home saga, as well. “We get through vaccinations. By the time he’s running, he’ll sort of go back to the ‘National Cuomo,’” she said. “‘I was doing such a great job when all these other governors weren’t.’”
The last New York Governor to resign was Elliot Spitzer, who fell from power after news broke that he had retained the services of a sex worker in 2008. At the time, public polls showed an overwhelming majority of New Yorkers wanted Spitzer out of office. As of now, the extent of Cuomo’s popularity appears to be in flux, but last week a Marist poll about the Governor’s handling of nursing homes found that fifty percent of New Yorkers still had a favorable view of Cuomo.
We’ve heard a lot about Impeachment lately. Is that a possibility for Governor Cuomo?
Hard to imagine.
While impeachment is an option for lawmakers, available through the state constitution, the political act of impeaching a governor is much easier said than done.
Still, Queens Assemblyman Ron Kim, who says Cuomo threatened to “destroy” him in a phone call after Kim criticized his handling of COVID-19 in nursing homes, is floating the idea of impeaching Cuomo. Kim has said, however, that any impeachment trial would center on the administration’s alleged withholding of nursing home death data, according to a USA Today report.
Whatever the motivation, it would be the first impeachment of a New York Governor since 1913, when Governor William Sulzer crossed the Tammany Hall political machine, and paid the price with an impeachment trial that was justified on dubious grounds.
But this is not 1913, and Cuomo is not likely to be impeached. First, this impeachment would an uphill battle politically, requiring a majority vote in the Assembly, which is currently controlled by Democrats. Then, two-thirds of an impeachment court, made up of state senators and appellate judges, would also have to support a conviction.
Could Cuomo Now Face a Real Political Challenge?
Definitely.
Even if Cuomo faces no major legal consequences as a result of the allegations, the damage from the ongoing scandals weaken the perception that he is a lock for a fourth term in 2022. With the recent cycle of negative press attention against Cuomo, some aspiring gubernatorial candidates, including public advocate Jumaane Williams and a few GOP congressional representatives, have floated the idea of making a run.
Greer, the Fordham professor, says the most interesting potential challenger to watch for could be Attorney General Letitia James. Despite the Governor’s role behind-the-scenes in helping her get elected, James issued a damaging report in January over the Cuomo administration’s handling of the nursing home death data. And with her ongoing investigation into the sexual harassment claims, she could strike another blow against the Governor.
“It sort of sets her up very nicely because the frame would be, ‘Listen, let’s clean up Albany, it's about time,” said Greer. “It’s like, listen, ‘These men are running rampant. Our politics are a mess. Let’s actually get a new way of thinking, new blood in these calcified offices, so we can actually have people doing the work.”
A spokesperson for Attorney General James declined to comment on speculation about a gubernatorial bid.
Kaehny, Executive Director of Reinvent Albany, points out that at this stage Cuomo’s allies in labor and major industries, like real estate and hospitals, have stuck with him. “When he loses their support, it doesn’t matter what the law says. He’s not gonna be able to govern,” he said. “You’ll know when that day comes when all of a sudden you start seeing surrogates and spokespeople for those groups starting to be more critical of the governor, which has not happened yet.”
Greer agreed that none of Cuomo’s adversaries should be taking a victory lap. “There’s no person that understands New York state better than Andrew Cuomo. What would take you and I several hours to... map out, Andrew Cuomo has mapped out seventeen million ways over the past forty years,” she said. “If we’re thinking about it, Andrew Cuomo has already thought about it.”
Spokespersons for the Cuomo administration did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Update: We have clarified this story to reflect that the third woman to come forward accuses the governor sexual misconduct.
