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One of the last opportunities for Zohran Mamdani’s opponents to change the dynamics of the race is on Thursday.

WNBC-TV will broadcast the first of two mayoral debates pitting Mamdani, the Democratic nominee and front-runner, against independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. The two-hour debate begins at 7 p.m.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, polls show Mamdani, a state assemblymember from Queens, holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo. But the former governor has narrowed the gap, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released last week. Mamdani has 46% support from likely voters, compared to 33% for Cuomo and 15% for Sliwa.

Here are four things to watch.

Now or never for Cuomo

Time is running out for Cuomo, who has a narrow path to victory as he paints the Democratic nominee as too extreme while also courting Republicans who don't have fond memories of his time as governor. He’s pitched himself to voters as an experienced leader who’d be tough on crime. Since losing the primary, Cuomo has shifted to a more combative presence on social media and been more accessible on the campaign trail. He’s continued to try to portray Mamdani as a “champagne socialist,” a reference to his privileged upbringing, and seized on wedge issues like charter schools and Mamdani’s pledge to cut gifted-and-talented programs for kindergartners. Cuomo has also proposed canceling the city’s plan to close Rikers Island.

There are some signs of momentum for Cuomo following Mayor Eric Adams’ decision to drop out of the race. Mamdani’s lead shrunk from 22 points in September to 13 points in the Quinnipiac poll. The former governor also got a fundraising boost, raising nearly $400,000 following Adams’ announcement. That’s nearly half of the $900,000 in total Cuomo has raised since mid-August. He currently has nearly $4 million in cash on hand, while Sliwa has $3 million. Mamdani leads in fundraising, with $6 million in cash on hand.

Thursday’s debate is an opportunity for Cuomo to make the case the contest should be a two-man race between him and Mamdani.

Trump is the opponent Mamdani wants

The debate will take place four days after Mamdani held a large rally with New York Attorney General Letitia James, who was indicted last week by President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice for mortgage fraud. Post-primary, Mamdani has cast himself as the candidate who will best stand up to Trump. James, who is the first Black woman to be elected to statewide office, called Mamdani “one of the boldest voices in the history of New York City politics.”

Yet Mamdani has lately sought to avoid any moves that would imperil his front-runner status. He’s rolled out few new policies and avoided taking a clear position on some long-standing controversies.

Look for Mamdani to argue that Cuomo is Trump’s preferred candidate.

Which Sliwa shows up?

In 2021, the Guardian Angels founder strode onto the debate stage sporting his signature red beret and soaked up the spotlight to interject and taunt Democratic nominee Eric Adams. But four years later, Sliwa has adopted a more serious look, ditching the beret for a suit and tie. He’s also talked about how he’d govern the city beyond just tackling crime.

He recently said he’d cut $10 billion in education funding, targeting bureaucratic bloat. He also said he’d elevate nonpartisan civil servants and give them more say in setting policy. The Republican nominee is trying to address criticisms — including from Trump — that he lacks the gravitas to be mayor.

Sliwa won nearly 28% of the vote four years ago, raising the possibility that polling is not capturing the extent of his support. A strong performance could establish Sliwa as more than just a spoiler.

Could Cuomo and Sliwa forge an alliance?

Debates typically feature the runners-up ganging up on the front-runner.

But Sliwa has focused most of his attacks on Cuomo, whom he has accused of trying to “steal” his voters. The Republican may opt to attack Cuomo as he seeks to establish himself as the tougher law-and-order candidate.

But some anti-Mamdani voters would relish a strategic alliance between the two men. Sliwa’s own voters have said they’re wrestling with whether to support him or Cuomo. Mamdani’s relative inexperience as a 33-year-old state lawmaker, his past call to defund the police and his support of legislation to decriminalize prostitution could be lines of attack from both Sliwa and Cuomo.

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This week, we’re wondering: Mamdani says he'd end gifted-and-talented for kindergartners, a policy that's been criticized as worsening segregation. Cuomo and Sliwa say they'd expand the programs. Should the city expand or scale back G&T?

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