'Safe' No More: NYC Democrats Facing A Slew Of 2020 Challengers

In 2018, Michael DenDekker, a Democratic State Assemblyman representing a hotbed of progressivism in Jackson Heights, Queens, ran unopposed.

It was the year of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and stunning State Senate upsets, but DenDekker was left alone. That wasn’t so unusual: the moderate Democrat, who once proclaimed it was “racist” that leftists want to run against him because his district is majority Latino, has never competed in a primary during his decade-long political career.

That will change next year. Two candidates, Jessica González-Rojas and Nuala O’Doherty Naranjo, have already declared their intentions to run, with another contender, Juan Ardilla, eyeing a bid.

“The demographics of the district have changed remarkably,” said Matt Thomas, a member of the Democratic Socialist of America’s Queens electoral group, which will likely endorse one of the candidates. “Even a split field is not necessarily going to be enough to preserve the incumbent.”

DenDekker, perhaps recognizing the threat, struck a conciliatory tone in an interview with Gothamist. “I believe people should’ve run against me every two years,” he said. “I think elections are good.”

If 2018 was a year of unprecedented Democratic primaries in New York—seven Democratic state senators, including six members of the now defunct Independent Democratic Conference, lost their seats to insurgents—next year could offer something similar, or even wilder. Sitting assembly members, state senators, and members of Congress are all facing primaries, some of them already well-financed.

The biggest difference between 2018 and 2020? The number of Democrats piling up in single districts, all trying to be the next AOC or IDC-slayer. For progressives hoping to crush another slate of entrenched incumbents, the competition offers both promise and peril.

“It’s hard to convince people not to run,” said Jerry Skurnik, a longtime Democratic consultant. “The more challengers you get, the better it is for an incumbent.”

Next June, when state and federal primaries are slated to be held, could put that truism to the test. In New York City, Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Grace Meng, Yvette Clarke, Jerry Nadler, and Eliot Engel will not only run in primaries, but possibly face multiple Democrats each on election day. In state legislative races, longtime assembly members like Felix Ortiz of Brooklyn and DenDekker could be encountering as many as three Democrats per district. Another Brooklyn Democrat, Erik Dilan, has two announced challengers.

It’s the type of primary activity virtually unseen in New York’s modern political history, a product of several confluent forces. There was Donald Trump’s black swan victory, which instantly created a new generation of Democratic activists after 2016, as well as Bernie Sanders’ first campaign, a boon for a major player in local politics, the Democratic Socialists of America.

And there’s the long-running decline of Democratic political machines and the sort of individual power brokers who could dissuade candidates from running while marshalling volunteers to single, select contenders.

“So long as Carolyn Maloney continues to take corporate PAC money, she’s going to get challenged,” said Suraj Patel, a Manhattan Democrat who ran against Maloney in 2018 and recently launched a campaign to do it again. “She’s going to get challenged by serious people, by activists, by everyone.”

Indeed, Patel is not alone anymore. Last year, he garnered over 40 percent of the vote running alone, but will now have to contend with three other progressive Democrats: Erica Vladimir, Pete Harrison, and Lauren Ashcraft, who was recently backed by Brand New Congress, the same organization that supported Ocasio-Cortez. All of them share a commitment to popular left causes, like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, and all of them assail Maloney as an out of touch centrist. Both Ashcraft and Harrison are active DSA members.

The anti-Maloney candidates, for now at least, have a friendly enough rapport, and none are trying to bump each other out. Some could fail to raise money and garner support, eventually leaving the race. None, however, have indicated they are anywhere close to doing so.

Patel is personally not worried about splitting the anti-Maloney vote, though the district is ripe for it: she’s very popular on the Upper East Side and less so in gentrifying Brooklyn and Queens, where the insurgents are likely to hunt for votes.

“This isn’t your typical horse race,” Patel insisted, comparing the campaign to golf, a sport where athletes compete as much against themselves as the field. “There are a million different ways to get 30,000 votes.”

With the weakening of political machines and the unlikelihood of major labor unions forcing many candidates out of primaries—unions typically endorse incumbents—the only other organization that could cull the various primary fields, indirectly at least, is DSA. The socialist organization’s endorsement is increasingly coveted after they successfully backed Ocasio-Cortez and Julia Salazar, a Brooklyn state senator, and nearly lifted Tiffany Cabán to victory in the Queens DA’s race. Cabán herself is said to be weighing whether to mount a congressional campaign against Maloney.

But non-DSA insurgents aren’t backing down either. Recently, DSA’s Brooklyn chapter voted to endorse single challengers across four legislative districts, including a candidate, tenant organizer Marcela Mitaynes, to challenge Ortiz in Brooklyn. Neither of the other women running, despite seeking DSA support and not getting it, are exiting the race.

“It’s not as strategic for so many candidates to run for the same seat,” said Genesis Aquino, one of the non-DSA endorsed challengers. “At the same time, it’s good because we haven’t seen that, ever.”

Aquino barely lost a race for district leader in Sunset Park last year and has been a well-known activist in the area, like Mitaynes. Beyond fears of vote-splitting, there’s little incentive for her to quit the race.

In a post-AOC world, it’s no longer uncommon for multiple viable candidates to enter a race to challenge an incumbent. Ortiz, for example, has usually run unopposed altogether.

All of this is occurring against the backdrop of a commission that is currently deciding whether to implement a system of public matching funds for candidates running in legislative races. If state insurgents can receive public matching funds next year, as they do if they seek City Council seats already, they can access a new source of funding that will put veteran lawmakers on the defensive.

In December, the commission, made up of appointees by the governor and legislative leaders, will make their recommendations, which could become binding before 2020. What the commission will ultimately decide is not known.

If incumbents benefit in most cases where votes are split among insurgents, there are a select number of historical examples that could buoy the claims of those who believe primaries are more than a zero-sum game. Reeling from the city’s fiscal crisis in the 1970’s, Mayor Abe Beame sought re-election against a wide range of prominent challengers, including Mario Cuomo, Bella Abzug, and Ed Koch. Koch, a congressman at the time, would prevail. Beame finished third.

“Some of these incumbents are well-known, well-liked in their community and have done the legwork,” Thomas, the Queens DSA member, said. “Some other incumbents are the sort of absentee representatives who have not done the work of cultivating support in their district. Those people will be easier to dislodge.”