Despite the potential loss of millions of dollars in federal aid that would result from an undercount in the 2020 U.S. Census, there’s been an alarming lack of participation by New Yorkers, for a myriad of reasons. This follows a national trend, though New York’s participation average remains far lower.
By mid-July New York state saw a 57.9% response rate to the Census so far, which is roughly 5% worse than the nationwide response rate. In NYC, the response rate is even worse: as of Sunday it was just 53% on average, according to the city.
In congressional districts in New York City there remains a wide gulf between response rates collected so far during this year’s census compared to a decade ago. The reasons, according to a data analysis, vary widely, though the COVID-19 epidemic remains a huge factor.
The trend of lower response rates across the city may be further exacerbated by news that the Census Bureau, according to an NPR report, will reduce the amount of door-knocking by enumerators—workers tasked with ensuring those who haven’t voluntarily filled out the census are counted—by an entire month. Door-knocking was scheduled to begin on August 11th and end on October 31st, but Census sources told NPR the program would end on September 30th.
NYC Census 2020 Director Julie Menin told Gothamist/WNYC this is just the latest Trump policy to hamper the 2020 Census in New York City.
“This has been a battle against the Trump administration from the start with the 2020 Census,” Menin said. “First it was the citizenship [question] lawsuit, which New York City has been a plaintiff on—we won that case at the [U.S.] Supreme Court. Then last week we were part of the lawsuit against the Presidential memo to not count the undocumented for congressional apportionment. Now, today, it’s cutting the door-knocking to end on September 30th.”
Response rates this year are already lagging behind 2010’s figures, particularly in New York's 10th, 12th, and 15th Congressional Districts, which have some of the state’s largest discrepancies. New York City’s participation rate has historically lagged behind the national average—even before Trump’s failed attempt to add a citizenship question in the census and the COVID-19 crisis.
In the 10th and 12th Congressional Districts (the 10th covers Manhattan and Brooklyn; the 12th covers Manhattan and Queens), flight from affluent neighborhoods in Manhattan during the early stages of the pandemic contributed to below average response rates in this census when compared to 2010.
“For those New Yorkers that have left New York and erroneously filled [the census] out from whatever location they're temporarily in, they also need to go back online and refill it out as a New Yorker,” Menin said in a press conference last week. “The U.S. Census Bureau will take out the duplicate.”
In other communities, like the 15th Congressional District in the South Bronx, 2020 Census response rates also lagged far behind 2010 responses—but an exodus to a second home isn’t likely to have driven this. Bronxites there, for the most part, stayed in the city. It was also one of the districts hardest hit by COVID-19, which has lowered Census response rates nationwide.
The district is also New York’s only majority Hispanic congressional district. Communities of color often tend to respond best to in-person efforts, like door knocking, Menin told Gothamist/WNYC.
“In many communities, particularly where we need to have in-person outreach, COVID is a barrier to that,” Menin said.
In January, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a $40 million outreach campaign to boost New York’s 2020 Census response rate. But distribution of those funds might vary between boroughs. Census volunteers this week set up tables at testing sites, parks, food banks and community centers across the city to assist people who may not have yet responded to the census yet.
During this effort, there were only 10 official in-person outreach sites in the Bronx, based on analysis of NYC and regional Census press releases. In comparison, Manhattan, which has a similarly sized population and a slightly larger overall response rate, had 30 sites.
In-person outreach efforts this week were also sparse in Representative Jerry Nadler’s 10th Congressional District. The district saw one of the biggest gaps between its 2010 and 2020 response rates, but only has two outreach sites, both in Manhattan.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries’ 8th Congressional District in Brooklyn had only six in-person outreach sites, despite having the lowest Census response rate in the city. Less than half of residents in that district have filled out census forms so far.
Regional Census Director Jeff Behler said on-the-ground teams have had to make adjustments to their outreach due to the pandemic, and that has meant cutting back on some in-person events, particularly those held indoors.
Menin said Census workers and volunteers are utilizing other outreach tools, like texting, phone-banking and 15 multilingual ad campaigns to compensate for the lack of in-person visits.
A spokesperson for Menin’s office told Gothamist/WNYC in an email that Census volunteers and workers conduct weekly phone banking focused in areas with low response rates such as the 8th Congressional District.
The statement also said partner organizations would conduct other Census 2020 outreach events in addition to the official sites listed on press releases.
“We're really using all the tools in our toolbox,” Menin said. “But with that said, there are parts of New York City that are still not responding.”
NYC Census door-knocking in South Richmond Hill, Queens, July 29, 2020
For those districts, the stakes are high: a total $1.5 trillion in federal funding will be distributed nationally following the 2020 Census, covering everything from Pell Grants to food assistance programs to distribution of healthcare spending and school funding (among many other things).
“Imagine you have a school of 100 kids and only 80 of those kids get counted,” Behler said. “That means that that school is only going to get 80% of the funding it deserves. And it doesn't just affect the 20 kids who don't get counted, it affects all 100, because they all have to deal with less funding.”
There's increasingly likely possibility that New York City will lose a congressional seat.
The Census results are expected to be delivered to the president by December 31st.
You can fill out the census online, over the phone, by mail or in person up until September 30th—but if you want to let the door-knockers focus on other neighbors, get it done before August 11th.
