The shutdown of public schools last week seemed to presage a second coronavirus wave that would soon bring renewed restrictions and business closures to NYC. Cases across the five boroughs have been steadily climbing, to a seven-day average of nearly 1,500 new confirmed cases a day, the highest since early May.
But instead of a putting in place a response to meet the winter surge, New York City continues to find itself in a perplexing position: its schools, which have not been linked to virus outbreaks, are closed while indoor dining and gyms remain open, with the exception of some areas in Staten Island.
City health officials have reported a seven-day average test positivity rate above 3% for nearly two weeks, but in yet another example of the tension between City Hall and Albany, the state and city calculate two different positivity rates. New York City's latest overall seven-day positivity rate as measured by the state is 2.5%. With respect to business closures, the state's number is the only one that matters.
"It seems like we are waiting to hit 3%," said Mark Levine, the Manhattan City Council member who chairs the council's health committee, referring to the state's figure. By then, he argued, "We will have lost weeks in which indoor dining has continued."
Meanwhile, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Governor Andrew Cuomo have offered conflicting messages. De Blasio, who last week closed schools after the citywide positivity rate hit 3%, has said that he expects the state to issue new restrictions that include ending indoor dining by the first week of December. But Cuomo appears to have other plans, namely adhering to his so-called "micro-cluster" or targeted approach that uses a tri-color-coded system of rules based on positivity or case rates.
At times, even veteran Albany reporters have struggled to decipher the guidance, and some public health experts have questioned the wisdom of delaying broader restrictions in a dense city where residents are highly mobile.
On Wednesday, Cuomo introduced another yet another wrinkle when he spoke about developing a "winter plan" and suggested that the zone classification system would include other factors. "We'll be developing a plan for the winter. Yellow, orange, red zones, adding the hospitalization factor and the hospitalization rate, and coming up with a plan to keep schools open," he said.
In the meantime, here are the pressing issues that have left many individuals, businesses and public school families in a state of limbo.
NYC is heading toward an "orange zone"...or is it?
Last week, Governor Cuomo declared that all of New York City could become an orange zone, which would close indoor dining, gyms as well as personal care services like hair salons and barber shops. According to state health rules, an area can receive an orange zone designation once its seven-day rolling positive testing average—as measured by the state—reaches 3% for 10 consecutive days.
Along with news outlets, Mayor de Blasio immediately seized on the remarks and predicted that restrictions were imminent.
"New York City will, before long, be in that orange zone status," he said, adding that he had talked to the governor "at length" about this issue.
But Cuomo has since backed away from his remarks about possible citywide restrictions, emphasizing the disparity of infection rates between some New York City neighborhoods. 85 ZIP codes out of 177 citywide have seven-day positivity rates at or above 3%, while 50 ZIP codes have positivity rates under 2%.
"Why close down businesses in a neighborhood that's doing better?" Cuomo asked rhetorically during a Tuesday press conference in Manhattan. "That makes no sense. Why close down schools in a neighborhood that's doing better?"
He later added: "It will be neighborhood by neighborhood. Now, could every neighborhood go up? Theoretically."
Asked to explain the shift afterwards, a spokesperson for Cuomo told Gothamist the governor has all along maintained a targeted zone approach.
In what is becoming a colorful mosaic, New York City now has five areas under zoned restrictions. Parts of South Brooklyn, central Queens, northern Manhattan, and the Bronx are in the "yellow zone," a precautionary designation that adds safety requirements but does not close schools or any businesses.
Staten Island, which has seen soaring infection rates in recent weeks, has been divided into yellow and orange zones, in which the southern portion of the borough no longer permits indoor dining, gyms and hair salons.
Adding to the complexity is the fact that the exact boundaries of each cluster zone are defined by state health officials. De Blasio had initially proposed ZIP codes as a geographic category that New Yorkers could easily identify, but in a classic display of one-upmanship, Cuomo proposed a more precise method.
So far, the zoned restrictions have succeeded in bringing down infection rates, most notably in Brooklyn, where positivity rates are now around 3%, after having once risen above 5%. At the same time, the approach has averted broader business closures that would further stall the city's struggling economy.
Still, some see broader restrictions as inevitable. "After a certain point, we need citywide measures because we are such a mobile city," Levine said. The virus is increasing everywhere at this point."
De Blasio says schools will reopen, but the path forward is unclear
During his school closure announcement last week, the mayor said he was already working on a reopening strategy. But as recent days have illustrated, de Blasio faces a difficult challenge, one that involves negotiating with teachers on a new standard as well as coordinating with Cuomo on his zoned approach.
Under the governor's rules, schools in red and orange zones must initially close, but they can reopen after a period of time, as long as all students are tested before returning to school. In addition, 25% of students and staff attending schools must be tested every week.
The mayor has said the city could reopen schools under the prescribed state guidance once Cuomo declares New York City an orange zone, but that premise now seems uncertain given the latter's recent statements.
Meanwhile, the governor, who had urged the mayor to back off his 3% trigger and reportedly nearly secured a deal with him to keep schools open, has disingenuously said that New York City schools can reopen as long as they are not under zoned restrictions. But given climbing infection rates and the threat of state mandates, any citywide schools reopening would be tenuous at best, leaving de Blasio at the mercy of the governor.
"How do you reopen now? He’s really boxed himself in," said Ester Fuchs, an urban policy professor at Columbia University and an adviser to previous mayors, referring to de Blasio.
Like several City Hall observers, she described the school closures as a debacle of the mayor's own making.
"The thing that is so distressing is the failure to plan," she said. "People do tabletop planning for natural disasters, and even pandemics. He had time to do the scenarios to put into place different approaches. Everyone knew what could potentially happen."
Dr. Irwin Redlener, a professor of pediatrics at Columbia University and children's health advocate who has advised the mayor on the pandemic, was more sympathetic, saying de Blasio faced an impossible situation. "None of the so-called experts have a so-called magic answer," he said.
De Blasio has thus far said that any reopening will occur in phases and focus on the pre-K and elementary school children, the group which studies have found to be least impacted by the virus, as well as special education students. Following the closure of schools, the head of the teachers' union, Michael Mulgrew, signaled that he would be amenable to a localized approach to reopening schools. At the same time, he has also said he is seeking to end mayoral control of city schools, a measure that would need to be passed by the state legislature.
After promising a plan before Thanksgiving, de Blasio on Wednesday said he would present details next week. Asked about the city's apparent lack of preparation for a closure, he apologized for not having a "plan B."
"In retrospect, clearly it would have been better," he said.
Given the rising positive testing rates, Dr. Redlener said he did not believe city schools would be reopening until sometime in the first quarter of 2021. "If they are lucky," he quickly added.
Fuchs said that ultimately, the mayor's lack of foresight has hurt working parents and their children. "To say, you can turn on a dime and reopen? People can’t do that with their lives."
The mayor's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Is New York in a second wave?
With each passing day, the numbers and predictions are becoming more ominous. The number of new daily cases statewide is now around 6,000, the highest it has been in seven months. Hospitalizations are also increasing. In the last three weeks alone, the total number of people hospitalized has risen from 1,200 to 2,700, a 122% increase, according to Cuomo.
And on Wednesday, New York state recorded 67 deaths from COVID-19, the highest one-day number since late May.
Cuomo has said that a 20% increase in cases resulting from the holiday season, which is considered a relatively modest projection, would mean that the statewide positive test rate would reach 12% by January 2nd, a stunning increase.
Cuomo and de Blasio have both cautioned New Yorkers about a second wave while also being careful not to say that the state is in the throes of one. Cuomo has inaccurately described as a second wave as occurring when "the virus mutates and comes back," while de Blasio has gone as far as to say that a second wave is "bearing down" on the city.
Even experts have been reluctant to use the term, arguing that it might suggest that New Yorkers no longer control their own destiny with regards to the pandemic. But holding back can also ease the pressure on policymakers to implement aggressive shutdowns.
Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at CUNY, noted that in New York City, there has been a gradual rise in emergency room visits for flu-like symptoms by those aged 75 and up, the group most vulnerable to getting sick from the virus.
That trend, along with increasing cases, deaths and hospitalizations, suggests the crisis is further along.
"I believe the second wave has started," he said. Like the governor, he said there was a good chance that cases will "really spike" in the weeks after Thanksgiving.
"It is not going away anytime soon," he added.
