Voters in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District will make a choice between two very different candidates on Thursday: a daughter of immigrants who ran on far-left progressive ideas like abolishing ICE, passing Medicare for All and reversing President Donald Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires; and a suburban township councilmember who says he’s part of a new generation of moderate Republicans not afraid to disagree with Trump on key policy issues.

Early vote returns suggest Democrat Analilia Mejia is the favorite to defeat Republican Joe Hathaway for the North Jersey seat in Congress. Both candidates are vying to finish out Gov. Mikie Sherill’s term in Congress.

Sherill, a moderate Democrat, flipped the district in 2018 after it had been red for more than three decades. In three subsequent elections, Sherrill retained the seat easily – thanks in part to redistricting after the 2020 census that made the district more favorable to Democrats.

How well Mejia performs at the polls as a more progressive candidate will be a test of Democrats’ strength heading into the midterms this fall. She trounced several better-known candidates in February’s special primary but it’s unclear how she will fare among a broader swath of voters.

“She's probably too progressive for most Democrats in the district,” said Matt Hale, Seton Hall political professor.

Hathaway has tried to paint Mejia as too extreme. He’s said that she is pushing “a radical socialist economic agenda.” and accused her of antisemitism for criticizing Israel over its war in Gaza.

But Hathaway has to overcome significant hurdles facing his party. In recent elections around the country, Democrats have picked off state Senate seats in Texas, Mississippi and Florida that were previously considered safe for Republicans. In New Jersey, President Donald Trump’s favorability has dipped to a paltry 26% in the most recent polls.

Mejia has focused her campaign on trying to convince voters that Hathaway is another yes-vote for what she says is Trump’s failed agenda.

She enters Thursday with a sizable advantage in the early vote. According to mail-in and early in-person ballots already counted by the state’s Division of Elections, Democrats account for more than 75% of the votes cast before Election Day.

Who are the candidates?

Hathaway and Mejia were lesser known political figures amongst New Jersey’s political insiders before they joined the race.

Mejia previously served as the head of the New Jersey Working Families Party. In 2019, she left that position to work as Bernie Sanders’ political director for his 2020 presidential run.

Since her dramatic win over 10 other candidates in the Democratic primary, Mejia has received campaign support from a wide array of well-known national and state Democratic figures, including Sherrill, Rep. Jamie Raskin and former rival Tom Malinowski, who finished second to Mejia in the primary.

During the general election campaign against Hathaway, Mejia has not strayed from the far-left progressive platform that helped her secure the party’s nomination. She has continued to call for abolishing ICE, characterizing the agency as an example of rising authoritarianism in the nation and around the world. And she says reversing Trump’s economic policies and components of his signature tax and spending legislation — which she calls the “Big Ugly Bill” — are key to fixing the affordability crisis.

Joe Hathaway has been a member of the town council in his hometown of Randolph since 2022. Last year, the former Ivy Leaguer and Yale football player served as mayor in the Morris County township.

When asked in April if he identified as “MAGA” at the candidates’ one and only debate, Hathaway described himself as part of a “new generation of Republicans” that will work across the aisle if needed to get things done in Washington. He also disparaged the president’s notion that he could run for a third term, a position few Republicans have taken up since Trump floated the idea last year.

Although Hathaway is not shy about criticizing the president, he has also said he would have voted for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” if he’d been in Congress at the time. He’s also defended the White House’s war in Iran, saying the mission appears to have accomplished its goals.

But the data is not on Hathaway’s side. Voters in the district have sent a Democrat to Washington the past four cycles, and recent voter registration data shows that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by more than 64,000 voters.

Whichever candidate wins will have to do it all over again in a few months. This seat is up again during the wider midterm elections in November, with primaries scheduled for June.

Polls are open across the district until 8 p.m. on Thursday.