Based on new data released by the Fire Department, Gothamist has created a new map showing large variations in at-home deaths between neighborhoods in New York City during the coronavirus pandemic.

Previously, we've created maps of positive COVID-19 cases, but no information on deaths by zip code has been made available by the NYC Department of Health. The new data set, based on FDNY cardiac arrest calls, shows the number of fatal calls in each zip code for the period between March 1st and April 13th in 2019 and 2020. These 2020 deaths represent only a portion of the total deaths in New York—the ones occurring at home, perhaps accounting for as little as 25% of the overall death toll in the city, with the rest occurring at hospitals or nursing homes.

First, we created a map showing the difference between fatal calls between 2019 and 2020 in each neighborhood. Some neighborhoods, including Williamsburg, Boro Park, Bedford Stuyvesant, Astoria, Jamaica, and Washington Heights, saw increases of more than 1300% year-over-year:

When plotting the per capita at-home death rates across neighborhoods, the differences were less stark, but some neighborhoods, including Far Rockaway and Flushing, showed rates well above average:

When we examined the association between COVID-19 cases and at-home deaths, we found a weak relationship, suggesting that high per-capita case rates do not necessarily predict high per capita death rates. Reasons for this could include uneven access to testing, differences in underlying health between zip codes, or a time lag between positive case diagnosis and eventual death:

Jake Dobkin & Zach Gottehrer-Cohen / Gothamist & WNYC

Once the city's Department of Health releases a full zip code data set of deaths, we will create a new set of maps. Among the questions to investigate are: Will more complete data show a stronger association between positive coronavirus cases and deaths? And are the numbers of at-home deaths strongly correlated with deaths at hospitals and nursing homes for people in those zipcodes?

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