The Knicks and Celtics have spent the last 25-plus seasons on opposite sides of a see-saw, never sharing space atop the Eastern Conference in a way that allowed for real rivalry. Any bad blood has pretty much been the result of Yankees-Red Sox spillover or the recollection of playoff battles in decades past, and that's unfortunate, because Knicks and Celtics fans deserve to hate each other. Sometimes the players still do.
Two years ago, the Knicks were back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years and were handled by the third-seeded Celtics in a first round sweep. That Celtics team was three years removed from a championship and coming off a season where they came one win from beating the Lakers in the Finals. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen were all still in town and each of them took the time to show the Knicks what champions are made of.
This year's matchup has a different look: the Celtics' championship is now five seasons ago, Allen is gone, Rondo is out for the year, and KG and Paul Pierce have been slowed by time. On the other hand, the second-seeded Knicks have built around Carmelo Anthony in a way that was just a dream two seasons ago. It appears the see-saw has been rebalanced, this time in favor of New York.
Or has it? Here's a look at what to watch for starting Saturday at 3 p.m.
Big Men: More than anything else, the play of big men Kevin Garnett, Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin has the potential to swing this series. Garnett's a 17-year veteran big man who, depending how far the C's go, could turn 37 during this year's playoffs and has been banged up all season, appearing in just 68 games. Still, he's huge for the Celtics, and not just because of his 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in 29.7 minutes: their defensive efficiency is nine points better with him on the court than it is with him on the bench, according to basketball-reference.com. Along with Avery Bradley, he's responsible for the Celtics' sixth-ranked defense, which the Celtics will need to slow the Knicks' top-three offense down.
For the Knicks, Chandler and Martin provide defense, rebounding and toughness and make the pick-and-roll portion of their offense go. Chandler's only played four times since coming down with a strained disc in his neck on March 13, missing the last six. Martin, who filled in ably for Chandler as the Knicks went on a thirteen-game winning streak, sprained his ankle against the Wizards five games ago and hasn't played since. Chandler's offensive rebounding prowess is especially likely give fits to the Celtics, who are one of the league's worst rebounding teams.
Chandler says he's ready to go Saturday and Martin says the same. Still, significant rust from the Knicks' big men will give Boston a chance to steal game one at the Garden and turn this series on its head.
What Will the Celtics do to Carmelo Anthony and How Will He Respond?: Melo's on an absolute tear, averaging 29.9 points on 46.7% shooting over his last twenty games, almost certainly playing the best ball of his career on his way to winning the scoring title. The Celtics' first priority will be to stop him, by any means necessary.
The NBA is evolving at such a rapid rate it's starting to look like the NFL, with defense based on complex game plans and disguised strategies. Against elite offensive players like Carmelo Anthony, teams show a variety of looks, varying them from play to play. It might be a hybrid zone, a late double or a trap designed to force the ball to the other side of the floor, and it might be one look that turns into another. There's a lot out there for teams to choose from. And the Celtics have plenty of players who can help them stop Melo: Garnett (with words as well as actions), Pierce, Brandon Bass and Jeff Green are all likely to spend time on Anthony throughout the series.
Melo's response will have to vary depending on the defense and he can't be afraid to pass the ball. He's been doing a great job of skipping the ball across the court against overloaded defenses to get threes for his teammates, which he can't stop doing now. Which brings us to...
Three Point Shooting: If the Knicks are hot this series will be over fast. The Celtics absolutely cannot score with the Knicks if they're shooting well. Problem is, it's jump shooting. When it goes, it goes. Sometimes it happens for no reason.
Paul Pierce: Paul Pierce is a killer. A premeditated murderer who deserves to spend consecutive life sentences in Ossining, New York for some of the things he's done to the Knicks. He's up there with Jordan, Reggie, Tim Hardaway, Steve Smith and a few other guys who are at their best under a suspension ceiling. Pierce's "heroics" could easily swing a game in favor of the Celtics and if it happens, it's likely to happen at the Garden.
This also happened.
Mentality: If the Knicks were playing against any other team, plenty of pundits would be talking sweep—but any time Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are involved, some respect has to be given. They've been here before and they know how to win. Sometimes cliches are true. The Knicks, on the other hand, have won precisely one playoff game since 2001. All season long, they've looked great when they've been great. When they haven't played well, they've argued with refs, lost focus and struggled to win against tough opponents (see games against Boston, Indiana, Chicago and Memphis, to name a few). In Boston, in the playoffs, with all the pressure on them, can the Knicks keep their heads on straight?
Plenty of Other Things: Can Mike Woodson coach with Doc Rivers? Can Raymond Felton run the offense with Avery Bradley hounding him? Can Jeff Green play big in the playoffs? Will JR Smith continue to throw himself at the rim? Is Jason Terry alive? Is Pablo Prigioni healthy? How bad is Jordan Crawford? Can Steve Novak prove the doubters wrong?
The Bottom Line: The Knicks narrowly win game one, dominate game two and split the two games in Boston, coming home to win their first playoff series in thirteen years at the Garden in game five. Hope the Celtics wait isn't quite as long as the Knicks was.
