The NY Times has obtained an alarming confidential assessment of the Japan nuclear crisis that was put out by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission toward the end of March. For those of you who've been tuning this stuff out as part of some futile attempt at psychological self-preservation, the catastrophe is still unfolding. Over the weekend it was discovered that highly radioactive water is spilling into the ocean, and this latest news is not specifically too good. In fact, it's pretty disturbing.
The Times has not made the NRC's assessment public, but it reportedly "raises new questions about whether pouring water on nuclear fuel in the absence of functioning cooling systems can be sustained indefinitely. Experts have said the Japanese need to continue to keep the fuel cool for many months until the plant can be stabilized, but there is growing awareness that the risks of pumping water on the fuel present a whole new category of challenges that the nuclear industry is only beginning to comprehend." Also:
The document also cites the possibility of explosions inside the containment structures due to the release of hydrogen and oxygen from seawater pumped into the reactors, and offers new details on how semimolten fuel rods and salt buildup are impeding the flow of fresh water meant to cool the nuclear cores... The ejection of nuclear material, which may have occurred during one of the earlier hydrogen explosions, may indicate more extensive damage to the extremely radioactive pools than previously disclosed.
David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer, tells the Times, "I thought they were, not out of the woods, but at least at the edge of the woods. This paints a very different picture, and suggests that things are a lot worse. They could still have more damage in a big way if some of these things don’t work out for them."
And in a dismaying ABC News editorial, two securities analysts write, "After almost a month, there continue to be more questions than answers. There has been marginal success in cooling the at-risk reactors and little success stemming the flow of radioactive waste water. We have no credible estimate of the impact this disaster will have on the Japanese economy in particular or the world economy in general. There have been no credible steps in the U.S. or by the International Atomic Energy Agency to begin learning from this event and its aftermath and to apply those lessons to avert or minimize future tragedies."
As a partial solution going forward, they call for the creation of "a permanently staffed, international nuclear rescue team." We suppose calling for a moratorium on nuclear power plants is too much to ask.
