Democrats have their eye on Mike Lawler’s seat. They have to pick a candidate first.

If Democrats want to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives this November, they will likely have to defeat Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican in a toss-up district in the Hudson Valley.

They just need to decide on their own candidate first.

Five Democratic candidates are running in the June 23 primary for the right to challenge Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, which stretches from northern Westchester to southern Dutchess County in the New York City suburbs. Early voting is already under way.

Even some Democratic leaders admit the crowded primary isn’t exactly ideal, since the candidates are spending their time and resources trying to defeat each other, rather than gearing up to fight their Republican foe. That’s been further complicated by the perceived front-runners — Beth Davidson, a Rockland County legislator, and Cait Conley, a former counterterrorism official under previous President Joe Biden — trading barbs over each other’s resumes in recent weeks.

“My preference would've been to have a primary with two or three candidates so that the winner of the primary would have a clear majority going into the general election, which I think would be helpful,” Westchester County Democratic Chair Suzanne Berger said. “But I think it's pretty much turned into that anyway.”

Despite the competitive primary, Democrats have the built-in advantage of a significant enrollment edge within the district, and they’re banking on a wave of anti-Donald Trump sentiment at the polls. They hope it can help put them over the top in the district they’ve been unable to wrestle back from Lawler since he defeated Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022.

Democrats need to net an additional four seats nationwide in November to take control of the House. The 17th District is one of 18 across the country rated as a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization that rates congressional districts based on their competitiveness.

An array of candidates

Davidson and Conley have led the Democratic field in campaign fundraising and the limited polling that has been made public. Conley has the support of Berger and the Democratic chairs of Putnam and Dutchess counties; Davidson has support from the Rockland Democratic chair.

Effie Phillips-Staley, a Tarrytown village trustee, and Mike Sacks, a lawyer and former television reporter from Croton-on-Hudson, have been running to Conley and Davidson’s left. Rounding out the field is John Cappello, an Air Force veteran from Rockland County.

Conley is a combat veteran who graduated from West Point and has degrees from Harvard and MIT. She served as the National Security Council’s director for counterterrorism and moved into the Westchester portion of the district shortly before launching her campaign. She’s not completely new to the area, however; she attended Pine Bush High School in nearby Orange County.

“Mike Lawler has already faced two Democratic politicians before, and he beat them,” Conley said in an interview. “But he's never had to face someone like me. And I believe if we want a different kind of outcome, we need a different kind of Democrat.”

Davidson served on the Nyack school board before her election to the Rockland County Legislature in 2023. She has long been active in county politics, serving as a volunteer and consultant for other campaigns and groups.

She says her experience as an elected official and a known quantity in Rockland County gives her an advantage in that portion of the district, which serves as both her and Lawler’s political base.

“This campaign really has been for me all about people, about the coalition I've built not just during this campaign, but over my 20 years in public service,” Davidson said in an interview. “And what gets me out of bed every day is to fight for the people I now represent who are being actively hurt by [the Trump] administration.”

Phillips-Staley and Sacks, meanwhile, have been campaigning in support of progressive-favored ideals, including Medicare for All. Phillips-Staley has the backing of the Working Families Party, the influential left-leaning third party.

“ I got into this race to do the work of building the base across the Democratic Party by putting forward a platform that isn't framed by Mike Lawler, but is framed by the needs of the people, and that is all-around affordability,” Phillips-Staley said during a candidate forum on WNYC’s “The Brian Lehrer Show” earlier this month.

In an interview, Sacks said a universal health care system is “not just good policy, it’s good politics.”

“ I think the only way forward to turn the page on this past political era is to pursue bold progressive policies that serve us all and work for all of us,” he said.

Democrats engage in friendly fire

For much of the race, the Democratic candidates seemed to abide by an unspoken non-aggression pact.

That started to change in February, when Conley began facing questions about her consulting work for an AI company and intelligence firm that have worked with the federal government. Conley’s critics, including Davidson, have suggested that includes work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Conley says that’s not the case. She says her consulting work focuses on protecting troops overseas, as well as protecting against terror attacks on home soil.

“ I have never and do not work with ICE,” she said.

Conley, in turn, said Davidson has been a “political operative herself for the last 30 years” and that voters in the district want new blood.

Davidson said she’s proud of her record.

“What gets me out of bed every day is to fight for the people I now represent who are being actively hurt by [the Trump] administration,” Davidson said.

All the candidates, including Davidson and Conley, have said they intend on supporting whomever wins the Democratic primary.

A blueish district

About 40% of the district’s active registered voters are Democrats, with 26% registered as Republicans and 28% independent. But the district’s voting record is decidedly more mixed.

Voters in the district were split in the 2024 presidential election — with Democrat Kamala Harris taking roughly 49.9% of the vote to Trump’s 49.3%, according to results compiled by The Downballot.

Lawler, then a state assemblymember, was first elected to Congress in 2022, when he scored a narrow victory over Maloney — helping propel Republicans to the House majority. He warded off a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2024.

This year, Lawler says he’s unimpressed with the whole Democratic field.

“I think it's, frankly, been a clown car of a primary,” he said at the state Capitol earlier this month. “And they've tried this non-aggression pact, which –- It's not holding up, but moreover, it doesn't distinguish yourself with voters.”

Sacks said he believes the current political environment will be too much for Lawler to overcome, regardless of who wins in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

“ There's a wave coming for Lawler this fall,” he said. “It's just a matter of who your wave rider is going to be.”

Lawler sees it differently.

“Whoever comes out of it, I'll be happy to run against and put my record up against,” he said.

Early voting for the June 23 primary opened Saturday and runs through June 21.