If only former Representative Chris Lee had kept his shirt on the Republican party wouldn't be scrambling to save his upstate seat. But Lee took his shirt off and put the photos online, and now the special election tomorrow for the 26th Congressional District seat is being looked at as an important bellwether on Medicare reform. In a historically Republican district (see: Jack Kemp) democrat Kathy Hochul is currently neck and neck with her GOP opponent Jane Corwin in the polls. Which helps explain why nearly $4.6 million has been spent on the campaign between the Democrats, Republicans and the Tea Party.
Initially thought to be an easy win for Corwin (the 26th district is one of four in NY that favored John McCain over Barack Obama), the race has turned into anything but. Beyond tiffs with the Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, Corwin has also had to defend her support of Paul Ryan's sweeping Medicare plan, a plan which has many in the rural district anxious. Sensing that anxiety Hochul has hammered hard on the Medicare issue, which has led her Republican nemesis to fire right back.
How serious are the parties taking this race? So serious that Republicans like Speaker of the House John Boehner, Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Allen West have all made appearances for Corwin. And, not to be outdone, the Democrats have not only sent increasingly golden girl Kirsten Gillibrand up to stump there, they've also arranged for former President Bill Clinton to flood district phones with a robocaller message promising voters that Hochul "will protect Medicare, cut wasteful spending and help create jobs."
Of course having Boehner head up there might not have been the best move. Though the district doesn't particularly like the President (Obama has a 42 percent approval rating there) the speaker is far less popular with just 28 percent approving of his job versus 45 percent who disapprove.
A Sienna poll from last week had Hochul winning with 42 percent of the vote and Corwin taking 38 percent, but as the margin of error is plus/minus four points that doesn't mean much. What this race will come down to, it seems, is voter turnout—never an easy thing to predict in a regular election let alone a special one.
