An analysis of census data culled in 2009 suggests that cycling in NYC has declined slightly compared to 2007, contradicting Department of Transportation studies that show a cycling boom. In their annual State of New York report, NYU's Furman Center examined census data to determine that only 0.6 percent of New Yorkers use bikes as their preferred mode of transportation [pdf]. This flies in the face of DOT numbers that show the number of cyclists doubling over the past four years [pdf]. It also flies in the face of what we see with our eyes when we're riding all over NYC, from South Brooklyn to Washington Heights. So what the deuce is going on here?
Back in October, Streetsblog took a pretty fair and circumspect look at these census findings, and ultimately decided that both the census data and the DOT studies are inadequate. The former because the sample sizes were simply too small to be accurate, the latter because the DOT counts cyclists as they come off and on the bridges, which may create a skewed impression of city-wide cycling habits. In other words, while more cyclists may be streaming over the Williamsburg Bridge, that doesn't necessarily mean cycling has increased citywide. From Streetsblog:
Michelle Ernst, an analyst with the Tri-State Transportation Campaign... wasn’t willing to dismiss the American Community Survey census data entirely, however. Instead, she noted its limitations, wondering whether overall cycling trips may be increasing while bike commuting stagnates.
Even if the borough-level numbers are extremely imprecise, however, the divergence they present is striking. While the ACS showed plummeting bike commuting rates in Staten Island and the Bronx, it recorded an increase in Brooklyn. That lends some credence to those who say that DOT’s screenline counts capture a western Brooklyn-based upward cycling trend more than a citywide one.
Asked about the Furman study, NYC DOT spokesman Seth Solomonow tells us, "We count cyclists, not questionnaires. The Census asks people in questionnaires about their primary transportation mode to work during the previous week. If someone biked only two days that week, or if fewer people cycled owing to poor weather, they would not be counted. This number also excludes many other categories of cyclists, such as those who may bike to school, to visit friends or family, to the gym, to the subway or who bike for fun, exercise and recreation. This way of counting could exclude a majority of cyclists on the street in any given day.
"Also, when dealing with percentages this small, there is a wide margin of error. So in part because of the great deficiencies of this method, we do counts of actual cyclists at key commuter locations which show a much stronger trend, with the number doubling in just the last four years." Also, as everyone knows, only hipsters ride bikes, and they don't fill out their Census forms.
