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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s potential presidential bid will face a key test next week when a fiercely contested Michigan primary will gauge whether the progressive movement is catching on with Democratic voters in swing states.

Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of Queens and the Bronx, has said she hasn’t ruled out a run for president. But her endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed, a 41-year-old progressive candidate who would be the country’s first Muslim senator, is a political flex that could help make the case that Democrats outside of New York City are ready for ideological change.

She’s already got evidence to back her up. Left-wing candidates dominated congressional primaries in New York and Colorado. She’s mentored Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a fellow Millennial democratic socialist who embodies the generational change many voters crave.

The New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America is already pushing her presidential candidacy.

“These are the conditions which might make her think now is the time,” said Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster who has performed polling in Michigan for an outside group supporting El-Sayed’s campaign.

“If you hear the music, you gotta dance,” Carlson said.

Should Ocasio-Cortez choose to run for president in two years, experts say she would easily be the progressive front-runner.

If she were to win the White House, she’d be the first woman to become president and the youngest in history.

She has also long been talked about as a potential candidate to succeed or challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer, who is up for re-election in 2028.

The road to the presidential nomination came into focus last week after Democrats unveiled the party’s new primary calendar.

Democrats proposed South Carolina and Nevada as the first two states to hold 2028 nominating contests, prioritizing Black and Latino voters.

Nevada, which has a large Latino population and is a stronghold for hospitality and trade unions, could provide a boost for Ocasio Cortez, a 36-year-old Latina viewed as Bernie Sanders’ progressive heir apparent. The Vermont senator won the battleground state handily in 2020.

A recent poll in New Hampshire found Ocasio-Cortez leading the field of potential contenders with 22% support from voters. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg came in second, followed by Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Still, some experts warned against making assumptions about voter sentiment this early. While Democratic primary voters may prefer progressives, those candidates may not prevail in general elections.

“The outcome in the midterms will really determine the kind of candidates that are going to win two years from now,” said Basil Smikle, a former Democratic strategist who teaches at Columbia University.

Those considering a presidential run will need to decide by spring of 2027 at the latest, enough time to begin campaigning in the early primary states.

Trip Yang, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with Ocasio-Cortez’s campaign, said that Ocasio-Cortez already checks the boxes for a top presidential contender.

“She's very good at fundraising. She's a very good communicator,” he said. “The fact that Kamala Harris used her as a major surrogate in Pennsylvania in the closing days of the 2024 election means that Democratic leaders see mainstream appeal in her.”

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This week in New York politics

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