As COVID cases continue to rise, Governor Andrew Cuomo is warning that all of New York City could soon enter the "orange zone." The middle tier of Cuomo's tri-colored system would mean an end to indoor dining, and additional restrictions on other in-person activities.
While less drastic than the extraordinary "PAUSE" implemented statewide in March, the designation would mark the biggest set-back to date in New York's reopening efforts. By all accounts, that backslide is fast approaching.
"New York City will before long be in that orange zone status," Mayor Bill de Blasio predicted on Thursday, adding that it was "a matter of when, not if." Below, a brief refresher on how we got here, and what it means to go orange.
What triggers an orange zone designation?
New York City would become an orange zone if the city's 7-day rolling positive testing average — as measured by the state — reaches 3 percent for 10 consecutive days. We're at 2.5 percent right now, and while the exact pace of increase is impossible to predict, Mayor de Blasio expects us to reach 3 percent within the next two weeks, if not sooner.
Wait, I thought the city was already over the 3 percent positive testing rate threshold? Shouldn't we all be orange zone'd already?
Nearly nine months into the pandemic, the state and city still insist on using different methodologies for measuring positivity rates. The reasons are complex and unsatisfying: the state is reporting test data based on the day the results are recorded, while the city bases its positivity calculation on the day the tests were performed. As a result, the two numbers are rarely the same. The city's measurement impacts school closings, while the state average impacts everything else.
Can I still go out to eat in a citywide orange zone? Can I shop for groceries?
Entering the orange zone would trigger an immediate shutdown of all indoor dining, which is currently allowed at 25 percent capacity in the five boroughs. Outdoor dining would still be legal, with a four person maximum per table — though that will be gone too if the positivity rate reaches 4 percent, the threshold for a red zone designation. All the takeout options you've come to appreciate these last few months may remain open, and will need your business more than ever.
As with the first lockdown, grocery stores, bodegas, farmer's markets, pharmacies, liquor stores and wine shops are all considered essential. They'll remain open regardless of color zone.
Do all non-essential businesses close if we enter an orange zone?
Not quite. Under the orange zone restrictions, businesses deemed "high-risk" by the state will be forced to close. Aside from restaurants, this basically means establishments focused on improving or grooming your body: gyms, fitness centers, barber shops, spas, tattoo and piercing parlors, nail salons, and laser hair removal providers.
All other not-quite-so-risky businesses — bowling alleys, art galleries, psychic booths, etc. — can remain open in the orange zone, though state health officials reserve the right to update their list at any time. And if New York were to enter a red zone, all non-essential businesses would be forced to shutter.
Can I hang out with my extended pod of 11 close friends and acquittances?
You can't, and you shouldn't have been before either. As part of restrictions announced by the governor earlier this month, all indoor gatherings at private residences were capped at ten people. Under the orange zone restrictions, that same threshold would apply to outdoor gatherings as well.
How will this affect schools?
New York City public schools were shuttered by Mayor de Blasio on Thursday, and won't resume in-person instruction until after Thanksgiving break at the earliest. But many private schools are planning to remain open. The orange zone rules would force them to go remote as well. Schools can normally reopen on the fifth day after an orange zone is declared, provided they conduct a certain amount of tests on students.
What about religious services?
Attendance at all houses of worship in an orange zone is limited to 33 percent of capacity or a maximum of 25 people. The state's orders on religious services have proven controversial, sparking lawsuits from religious groups. A federal judge sided with the state last month, but the Diocese of Brooklyn has appealed that decision, setting up a possible Supreme Court battle.
Wasn't the whole point of the multi-level color zone to target COVID clusters in certain neighborhoods without placing entire regions into a broader lockdown? Why are we now talking about a blanket zone for all of New York City? Also whatever happened to the yellow zone?
The factors that go into Governor Cuomo's COVID decisions are not always transparent. In this case, it seems fair to assume the rate of community transmission is prevalent enough — or nearing that point, at least — that state officials no longer see smaller neighborhood-level lockdowns as useful.
We're also hazy on why the city hasn't already entered a yellow zone, if we're now on the cusp of being an orange zone. Like colors themselves, there is a certain intangibility to the governor's colorful zone system.
How long is this going to last?
Cuomo has often preached that localities can avoid extended lockdowns if they simply follow the rules. He's cited previous micro-clusters in Brooklyn and Queens, among other parts of New York, that have managed to escape red and orange zones by lowering positivity rates.
But given the trajectory of the entire country right now, and with the winter holidays months approaching, health officials have made clear that cases numbers will continue to grow, and lockdown measures are unlikely to be eased anytime soon.
"If I had to predict you’re going to see a significant spike post-Thanksgiving, it’s going to run into the Christmas holiday, and you’re going to see these numbers go very high," Cuomo told reporters during a conference call on Thursday.
Do the rapidly accelerating case counts and looming lockdown measures mean we're any closer to receiving a stimulus check from the federal government?
