After a cruise-control regular season, the Mets have hit a speed bump before the playoffs start. The health of their pitching staff has downgraded from bad to worse. After they learned Pedro Martinez would miss the postseason -- and half of next season -- with a torn muscle in his calf and a torn rotator cuff, the Mets got more bad news Tuesday when Orlando Hernandez pulled his calf during a workout. The Mets now hand the game 1 ball over to 25 year-old John Maine, who has played in only 27 Major League games and has no playoff starts. Maine was 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA in his 16 starts this season. Hernandez, in comparison, is 9-2 with a 2.64 ERA in his 14 postseason starts.
As dominant as the Mets were in the regular season, their success can unravel in the span of four or five nights. And their regular-season record would only make a postseason defeat more disappointing. How likely are Mets fans to be disappointed?
Luck plays a large role in any postseason series. No matter how good the Mets' lineup is -- and it's talented -- no team should be truly confident in its chances if it doesn't have a reliable starting staff. Not only do the Mets not have a reliable staff, they don't have a reliable starter. Mets fans who point to Tom Glavine should realize he is a finesse left-hander that doesn't strike out enough people. The Dodgers' rotation -- Derek Lowe, Hong-Chih Kuo, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny -- looks better than the Mets'. Still, the Mets won 97 games for a reason, and they should be the favorites to beat the Dodgers. It won't be easy, and the series will likely go five games.
Update: MRI results show that Orlando Hernandez has a torn muscle in his right calf and is out for the series.
Photo by AP/Henny Ray Abrams
